Russia’s Ukraine WAR — Justified?
For several weeks now, US & many other countries, had been indicating that Russia is planning military invasion of Ukraine. Several warnings were given, talking about the Russian military buildup (including blood supply) near the Russia-Ukraine border. Several possible dates were flagged, linking the same with even the conclusion of the winter Olympics in China. Many countries even urged their nationals to leave Ukraine. This is even as Ukraine suggested that highlighting excessively the risk of a large-scale war was a mistake.
Russia even “confirmed partial withdrawal of troops from Ukraine border”, though many western countries claimed otherwise.
As it turned out, Russia was playing a game of smoke & mirrors. They eventually moved with, possibly, long-planned invasion of Ukraine. Possibly something that was only an extension of their incursion in Crimea in 2014. It started with Russia’s recognition of Donetsk & Luhansk as independent countries on Monday (21st February, 2022), even as the exchange between the Russian President (Vladmir Putin) & his spy chief (Sergei Naryshkin) indicated that even among the highest corridors of foreign policy, this wasn’t a popular decision. This was followed with, what was again claimed to be, a military operation in Ukraine by Russia to protect civilians on Thursday (24th February, 2022).
The Russian President broadly gave the following justifications for attacking Ukraine:
- Ukraine is run by far-right nationalists and neo-Nazis who claim several Russian regions, including Crimea, and are willing to inflict war. Thus, showdown between Russia and these forces cannot be avoided
- NATO has been expanding eastwards towards Russia, and it’s expansion to Ukraine can’t be accepted
- Russia cannot feel safe, develop, and exist while facing a permanent threat from the territory of today’s Ukraine
- Protect people of Donbas who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime
- To demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation
- Russia is acting to defend ourselves from the threats created for us and from a worse peril than what is happening now
Though, between the lines, the President also seemed to be indicating a desire to correct historical mistakes which may also be taken to include the disintegration of USSR. But that is probably a discussion for another day.
Before delving into the above justifications, a brief look at what was enshrined under the Budapest Memorandum — which was signed by the US, Russia & the UK — may be helpful. The context largely was the elimination of nuclear weapons that Ukraine had been left in possession of post the break up of the Soviet Union. Among other points, following was confirmed by the aforementioned signatories:
- Respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine
- Reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine
- The signatories will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning the commitments
What becomes immediately clear on noting the above points in the memorandum is that Russia broke it’s commitments under the Memorandum in 2014 when they annexed Crimea. And there was seemingly never a formal consultation between the signatories on the same, because Russia claimed that it never violated the memorandum!
Thus, Ukraine — a country that had put their security concerns aside, joined NPT & gotten rid of their nuclear weapons in lieu of the assurances under the memorandum — was left to find a solution for itself. And that would mean they had to seek other solutions, in light of their original concerns with Russia coming to shore.
Just to be sure, it could be argued that Ukraine had already expressed those concerns while they were attempting to join NATO in 2008. But given how that attempt went nowhere, it seems highly likely that Crimea’s annexation provided the real push for Ukraine to pursue admission to NATO with higher vigor and, possibly, more public support.
The Nazi Angle
The Russian president claimed that far-right nationalists and neo-Nazis are inflicting pain and war. Seemingly, the Nazis referenced by the president are the elected representatives of the Ukranian people. What’s exceedingly surprising is how the Nazi government is actually being led by a Jew who lost many of his grandfather’s brothers in the Holocaust. Right groups may be growing in Ukraine, but their electoral power is limited. In fact, given where the Russian regime under the current president stands, a Russian speaker in Ukraine may have more freedom than one in Russia.
The “Nazification” claim, thus, seems nothing more than an emotional invocation to Russian people — an attempt to paint Ukranian leadership with the same color which the aggressor had during WWII.
The NATO Question
While a sovereign nation has every right to independently determine their security concern, militarily attacking another sovereign because of the fear that they may join, for want of a better word, “an enemy” is nothing but a different definition of imperialism.
Even going beyond why NATO membership became important for Ukraine (willful undermining of the Budapest Memorandum by Russia), the issue required dialogue at best and engagements at multilateral associations like the UN at worst. And Russia would have had enough support given the involvement of nations with which it had started developing deep economic linkages (read the European bloc which is heavily dependent on Russian gas).
What is of importance here is that even as there are no known hostilities caused by or emanating out of Ukraine towards Russia, the Russian president claims “Russia cannot feel safe, develop, and exist while facing a permanent threat from the territory of today’s Ukraine”. This is even as there have been undercover Russian soldiers fighting against Ukraine in Ukranian territories.
The Donbas Request
Interestingly, the sequence of events also included Donbas being declared independent republic & subsequent request by these republics to Russia for help. And Russia claimed to be acting “in accordance with Article 51 (Chapter VII) of the UN Charter”, which largely permits such special military operation.
Actually, the Budapest Memorandum does provide for an exception for such actions where it states — “that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.”
This is where possibly it becomes a bit technical. The recognition of Donbas, which possibly was a pre-requisite to the invocation of Article 51 (Chapter VII) of the UN Charter, in the way it was done by Russia was in itself (again) a violation of the Budapest Memorandum!
While technically it may be invalid, what about any real issues which people in Donbas may be facing? Though Russia has been accused of being the aggressor and fueling the rebellion, a UN mediated solution would possibly have been the way forward. Certainly not the current position which Russia has taken.
Beyond all the history of Russia-Ukraine relationship, and (mostly) misleading justifications from the Russian president for inflicting this war on Ukraine, the Russian president also seemingly indicated that he will have support of the Ukrainians. The response of Ukrainians, however, tells clearly that Russia is the imperial power acting against the self-determined stand of the Ukrainians. And Russia is doing the unthinkable in the modern world — bombing civilian areas like homes, killing innocents and pushing millions out of their home & homeland!
Interestingly, one of the points under the Budapest Memorandum seems to permit the use of nuclear weapons on Ukraine in case they work in association/alliance with a nuclear weapon state. Was this the nuclear insinuation which the Russian president had tried making when he said “Whoever, would try to stop us, and furthermore, create threats to our country, our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and lead you to such consequences as you have never faced in your history”? Only he knows the real answer. But we know that there is nothing out there which justifies what Ukrainians are going through.
